Russian officials have been discussing the possibility of bringing up to 100,000 Russia-based Armenians to Armenia to participate in the parliamentary elections and vote against incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who has moved closer to Europe and NATO.
Source: European Pravda, citing a Reuters report based on interviews with five Western intelligence officials and documents seen by the agency
Details: Russia's efforts ahead of the elections include disinformation campaigns in support of pro-Russian candidates and a scheme to transport tens of thousands of Armenians from Russia to influence the vote.
Three Western officials said Moscow's favoured candidate is billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, who is on trial on charges of allegedly calling for the overthrow of the government.
In October, the Kremlin established a unit known as the Directorate for Strategic Cooperation and Partnership, which, according to four sources, oversees influence operations in Armenia.
In recent months, Russian officials have been discussing the possibility of sending Russia-based Armenians to vote against Pashinyan, according to five sources.
One source – a senior US official – said the number of people Moscow could realistically transport is a matter of debate within the intelligence community. However, the source said intelligence officials are taking the idea seriously. Armenians travel regularly between the two countries, with dozens of flights operating daily.
Three sources said the Russian authorities have calculated that transporting 100,000 voters would cost approximately US$50 million. They added that by mid-May, the Kremlin had assigned quotas to each region for the number of Armenians to be sent and requested updates on preparations from local administrators.
Reuters could not determine whether the plan is being implemented or whether it would be sufficient to close the significant gap between the leading candidates in the election.
A poll conducted earlier this month showed that Pashinyan's Civil Contract party is projected to lead with around 30% of the vote. Karapetyan's Strong Armenia party, with 6%, is in second place among a crowded field.
Russian officials have also intensified disinformation campaigns targeting Pashinyan's government. Russia is backing an online campaign that spreads false claims a corrupt land deal involving Pashinyan and US senators.
One European official noted that the campaigns used a Kremlin-linked botnet known as Storm-1516, which also attempted to interfere in recent US elections.
According to three sources, the Kremlin has enlisted Russian political consultancies and think tanks, including the Social Design Agency (SDA), which is sanctioned by the European Union and the UK for spreading disinformation aimed at undermining support for Ukraine.
Reuters has reviewed five Russian-language documents, which the sources said were drafted by SDA. One of the documents proposed establishing a media outlet called Yerevan1 for the Russian diaspora in Armenia, aimed at fostering a " negative attitude " towards Pashinyan. The plan the " core narrative " that " Armenia can only prosper in a close alliance with Russia and under its protection ".
The document contained an assessment that Russian Armenians could play a decisive role in the elections if " high turnout among them can be ensured ".
Russian leader Vladimir Putin has made no secret of his dissatisfaction with Pashinyan's shift in policy as Armenia has moved closer to cooperation with Western countries.
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