UK blames IRGC for RAF plot, vows crackdown on Iranian networks

The tanker incidents underscored the threat to shipping beyond the waterway itself. The Nicaragua-flagged Petro Dolphin was hit by a drone at Sohar anchorage off Oman, India’s shipping minister said. Nine of its 11 Indian crew members were rescued, while two remained missing.

Separately, the Marshall Islands-flagged Valthera was struck by an unidentified projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, setting off a fire onboard; all 11 Indian crew members were safe, India’s foreign ministry said. The ministry condemned the attacks, and India’s embassy in Muscat was coordinating with Omani authorities to help locate the missing sailors.

The latest incidents followed repeated attacks on commercial vessels in the region, but the statements from India did not identify who was responsible for Sunday’s strikes.

Separately, a drone struck a camp belonging to an Iranian Kurdish opposition group in Koya, east of Erbil in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, Reuters reported, citing two security sources. No casualties were immediately reported.

Kurdistan-based website Rudaw published video showing a drone in the sky over Koya, but said it was not yet clear whether it had hit a target. No responsibility for the reported strike was established.

The incidents came as Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, warned that a renewed war could put infrastructure across the region within range.

“If war breaks out, many cables, data centers and artificial intelligence facilities, valued at $2 trillion, will be within range,” he said, according to state media. Rezaei added that Iran would continue resisting until its adversaries accepted its rights.

Iranian officials also continued to issue warnings to Washington and regional governments. Acting Defense Minister Majid Ebn al-Reza said the armed forces were ready to respond to threats and urged neighboring countries to leave what he called the US security umbrella.

His remarks followed a statement by armed forces spokesman Abolfazl Shekarchi that Iran would not allow the United States and Israel to re-establish their preferred regional order.

At the same time, diplomatic contacts had not stopped. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran was reviewing Washington’s latest proposal and that messages between the two countries continued through mediators.

Baghaei gave no indication of a breakthrough, saying Iran’s position on the Strait of Hormuz remained tied to the US naval blockade.

The developments pointed to risks spreading across shipping routes, Iraqi Kurdistan and potentially digital infrastructure, even as intermediaries continued trying to keep US-Iran diplomacy alive.

The blockade has sharply restricted maritime trade, while years of sanctions have squeezed Iran’s access to international finance. But not every trade channel had already closed.

Trains carrying goods from China were still reaching Iran before the latest US measures. The question now is whether sanctions on Iran’s railway companies will narrow that remaining route and complicate the flow of goods, including auto parts, carried on it.

Last week, the US Treasury designated three Iranian rail companies: the state-owned Islamic Republic of Iran Railway Company, known as RAI; Raja Passenger Trains Company; and private freight operator Railway Transportation Company.

The department said Iran had turned to rail to sustain trade and transport oil as the maritime blockade took hold.

The sanctions block the US-based property of the designated companies and prohibit US persons from dealing with them, while separate sectoral determinations give Washington wider scope to impose future designations. They do not automatically block every foreign railway, freight company or shipment connected to Iran.

The more immediate effect may be caution among companies involved in the trade. Banks may reject payments. Insurers and equipment suppliers may refuse to handle business involving designated companies. Others may charge higher fees or take longer to process shipments.

None of this would close the railway, but together it could make the route less dependable.

A useful route, with clear limits

The China–Iran rail connection is no longer just a proposal. In September, a block train bound for Iran was reported traveling through Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan before entering at Sarakhs.

A train from Xi’an to Iran’s Aprin dry port in 2025 was reported to have taken 15 days, compared with an estimated 30 to 40 days by sea. Iranian railway officials also reported that 43 freight trains arrived from China in the first nine months of 2025.

Those figures show a route in use, although they do not indicate how much of Iran’s overall trade moves by rail.

Rail can move selected goods, industrial inputs, equipment and containerized cargo faster than shipping by sea. But it cannot replace the volume carried by tankers or bulk freighters.

Treasury says Iran is using rail to help transport oil, but its announcement provides no figures for oil moved this way. There is therefore little evidence that rail is a meaningful substitute for seaborne oil exports.

The new designations could nevertheless complicate the China route. Freight must be coordinated among operators, border agencies and terminals in several countries, making the response of Chinese and Central Asian companies important to how disruptive the sanctions ultimately prove.

Auto parts show where the sanctions overlap

The automotive sanctions create a second pressure point because auto parts from China have traveled to Iran by rail.

In 2025, Iran Khodro reportedly received an all-rail shipment through Sarakhs. The head of the local special economic zone said the route reduced transit and stockpiling time from 50 days to 15.

Sanctions on automakers and rail operators could therefore put pressure on the same supply chain from two directions.

Procurement and payment may become harder, while freight companies and intermediaries may avoid shipments linked to designated firms.

The impact on car production, however, will depend on what parts are affected, how much stock manufacturers have and whether other suppliers or routes are available.

The trains may run, but at a price

The blockade has squeezed Iran’s maritime options; the rail sanctions raise the risks attached to an overland alternative.

They may not stop the China–Iran connection, but could make it costlier and less predictable by deterring the banks, insurers and logistics firms that keep shipments moving.

How much traffic falls will depend largely on the response of Chinese and Central Asian operators.

For now, the railway remains open. But as Iran leans more heavily on the trade routes still available to it, Washington is trying to make those routes harder to use.

The October 1 event, dubbed "Jan-Fadayan," or "Those Willing to Sacrifice Their Lives," brought together members of the Basij paramilitary force, religious organizations and other participants, according to Iranian state media.

Organizers described the gathering as a demonstration of public readiness and mobilization capabilities.

Iranian lawyer Ali Mojtahedzadeh described the public display of bladed weapons as a "show of force with weapons" and called on local security authorities to explain why it had been permitted.

A review of statements by senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders and former security officials shows that the use of unofficial groups, including individuals described as criminals and street thugs, to confront protesters dates back decades.

From the 1999 student protests to the 2009 crackdown

One of the earliest documented accounts dates to July 1999, when security forces and allied groups attacked Tehran University student dormitories, triggering widespread demonstrations.

Ali Hashemi, a former deputy security minister at Iran's Intelligence Ministry, said in an audio recording published by Iran International that approximately 250 individuals described as "thugs and hooligans" were organized during the student protests.

Hashemi said the experience later served as a model for deploying similar groups during the mass demonstrations that followed Iran's disputed 2009 presidential election.

He also described the use of individuals with criminal records to beat detainees, including at the notorious Kahrizak detention center, referring to authorization from judicial authorities.

Hashemi said similar individuals were subsequently deployed during protests in 2017, 2018 and November 2019.

One of the most explicit accounts came from Hossein Hamedani, a senior IRGC commander responsible for security operations in Tehran during the 2009 unrest.

Hamedani said the Revolutionary Guards identified approximately 5,000 people who had participated in disturbances but were not affiliated with political parties or movements. He described them as "criminals and thugs."

According to Hamedani, these individuals were initially prevented from leaving their homes on days when protests were planned, but some were later recruited and organized into three battalions.

"I then made them members of the battalions," he said.

Explaining the strategy, Hamedani said that training fighters required recruiting individuals accustomed to handling "blades and machetes."

Hamedani also described preparations to confront protesters during Ashura, a major Shiite religious observance, in December 2009.

He said cinemas, schools and religious halls were made available to pro-government forces, while approximately 30 religious groups were mobilized in Tehran.

"On Ashura, these same three battalions put an end to the unrest," Hamedani said, adding that approximately 45,000 Basij members had also been deployed.

Following Hamedani's death in Syria in 2015, Mohammad Ali Jafari, then commander-in-chief of the IRGC, credited him with helping suppress the 2009 protests, saying his leadership had been crucial to ending what Iranian authorities described as "sedition."

Hamedani had also played a central role in organizing local militias supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad during the country's civil war.

Jafari later said Hamedani had organized approximately 100,000 local fighters in Syria.

Allegations of machete-wielding clerics in 2022 protests

Similar allegations emerged following the nationwide protests triggered by the death of Mahsa Jina Amini in morality police custody in September 2022.

In 2024, former lawmaker Mohammad Ashrafi Esfahani accused a group of clerics associated with influential religious figure Alireza Panahian of attacking protesters with knives and machetes while dressed as civilians.

He alleged that the men returned from the streets wearing bloodstained clothes before changing into clerical robes.

Ashrafi Esfahani also said members of the group operated in plainclothes and changed into clerical attire, including turbans, when police officers appeared to avoid being confronted.

The allegations emerged amid a legal and financial dispute between Ashrafi Esfahani and Panahian over a religious complex in Tehran and have not been independently verified.

Renewed scrutiny of unofficial armed groups

Nearly three decades after the 1999 student protests, the images from Isfahan have again raised questions the role of unofficial groups operating alongside Iran's formal security forces.

Although the names, structures and political circumstances of the groups involved in past crackdowns have varied, accounts by former security officials and IRGC commanders describe the repeated recruitment and deployment of individuals capable of using violence against demonstrators.

The available evidence does not establish that the groups involved in different periods belonged to a single organization or were directly connected.

Nor has any organizational link been established between those previously deployed against protesters and the men seen carrying machetes and swords at the Isfahan rally.

The identities and affiliations of the armed men have not been independently verified.

Their appearance at an IRGC-backed event has nevertheless renewed attention to the Islamic Republic's documented history of mobilizing forces outside conventional security structures during periods of political unrest.

The attack on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport prompted warnings to travelers, expressions of solidarity with Saudi Arabia and calls for an end to attacks on civilian infrastructure.

International condemnation of Houthi attack

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Iran-backed Houthi forces are destabilizing regional transport and energy infrastructure.

“These attacks by Iran’s proxies are pushing the region into a spiral of violence,” von der Leyen said.

She described the airport strike as a dangerous escalation and called for an immediate end to attacks on civilians.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas also condemned the strike, calling it an “appalling act of terror.”

“There can be no justification for indiscriminate attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure,” Kallas said.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for an immediate halt to attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure.

“Attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure are a violation of international law,” Guterres said.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul described the strike as “a terrorist act against Saudi Arabia and civil aviation,” while British Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband urged British nationals to avoid Riyadh airport and follow Saudi authorities' instructions.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni censured the attack and expressed solidarity with Saudi Arabia and the victims' families.

“Attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure are unacceptable and must stop,” Meloni wrote on X.

Meloni said Italy would continue working with regional partners to promote stability and freedom of .

France also condemned the attack, describing it as “heinous” and expressing its “total solidarity” with Saudi Arabia, the French Foreign Ministry said on Sunday.

France would continue supporting Saudi Arabia in defending its territory and infrastructure, including through its military assistance, the ministry said. It also called on the Houthis to immediately stop attacks and provocations destabilizing the region.

Russia also condemned the attack on Riyadh's international airport, Interfax news agency reported on Sunday.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney condemned the attack and offered condolences to the families of those killed.

“There can be no justification for attacks on civilian infrastructure,” Carney said.

The Arab League and Syria also condemned the strike. Syria's Foreign Ministry said a Syrian citizen had been killed and called for international action to prevent further attacks on civilian facilities.

Pakistan reaffirmed its commitment to Saudi Arabia's security under the two countries' joint defense agreement.

“Pakistan stands in unwavering solidarity with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, its leadership and brotherly people,” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said.

The Houthis subsequently renewed their warning to airlines, airport workers and travelers against using Saudi airports, saying Saudi Arabia bore responsibility for failed interceptions.

Iranian officials warn of further military action

Separately, Iranian officials warned against further attacks on Iran and reiterated threats over the Strait of Hormuz.

An adviser to the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said that any new attack involving missiles or aircraft would trigger a stronger Iranian response.

“Any provocation or attack with missiles or aircraft will be met with a heavier and crushing response,” Mohammad Reza Naghdi said on Sunday.

Iranian Army Deputy Coordinator Habibollah Sayyari said the military had previously struck vessels and remained prepared to do so again.

“We defended firmly and will continue to do so,” Sayyari said. “Wherever necessary, we will act to strike the enemy.”

Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said that Iran's response to any new military action would differ from its responses.

“Our response in the 40-day war was different from the 12-day war, and we hope our adversaries will show some rationality,” Gharibabadi said.

Gharibabadi also described the Strait of Hormuz as an Iranian waterway and said the country would use it as an instrument against its adversaries.

Lawmaker Hassan Ghashghavi said support for reviewing Iran's nuclear doctrine was growing among officials, experts and the public.

Ghashghavi also argued that Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz was strengthening and that the waterway could not reopen until the Islamic Republic's conditions were met.

Separately, the newspaper Khorasan, which is close to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, wrote that Washington and Israel had already decided to launch another war and that recent diplomatic exchanges were unlikely to alter that decision.

Nuclear dispute and maritime pressure continue

Atomic Energy Organization of Iran chief Mohammad Eslami criticized international institutions and the International Atomic Energy Agency for their response to attacks on Iranian nuclear and non-nuclear facilities.

“The silence and selective approach of international institutions and the IAEA toward direct attacks on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear and non-nuclear facilities represent an obvious and disastrous contradiction in the international system,” Eslami said.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi separately maintained that US-Israeli strikes on Iranian oil and energy infrastructure had created environmental hazards, including the possible contamination of air, soil and water.

Maritime developments added another dimension to the day's security concerns.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported an encounter involving a tanker and military forces in the Gulf of Oman, hours after the US military announced that it had struck a vessel attempting to breach its naval blockade of Iran.

The agency advised vessels to remain alert as authorities examined the circumstances.

The international condemnation of the Houthi attack on Riyadh airport came alongside renewed threats from the Houthis and Iranian officials, raising concerns further attacks on civilian infrastructure and commercial shipping across the region.

The discussion, hosted by Fardad Farahzad, brought together Kerri Bitsoff, a former senior official at the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC); Patrick Clawson, the Morningstar senior fellow at the Washington Institute; and Mohammad Machine-Chian, a senior economist and analyst at Iran International.

“The thing sanctions, if they’re on the books but not enforced, they only hurt the people,” Bitsoff said, arguing that the current US campaign differed from rounds by focusing more heavily on enforcement and the financial intermediaries sustaining Iran’s economy.

Iran faces declining oil revenues alongside damage to its energy infrastructure following the war, raising the prospect of severe economic difficulties during the coming winter, Clawson said.

President Masoud Pezeshkian had acknowledged that Iran could not export oil during the initial blockade, according to Clawson, who said the country subsequently sought alternative routes for limited shipments.

Iran had also relied on oil previously stored aboard vessels and in China, but those reserves were approaching exhaustion, he said.

Damage to natural gas infrastructure could compound the difficulties, potentially forcing greater reliance on mazut, a heavily polluting fuel used for electricity generation.

Iran depends on natural gas for approximately 69 percent of its energy requirements, making disruptions particularly consequential for households and industry, Clawson said.

Machine-Chian estimated that between $21 and $23 billion in export proceeds had not returned to Iran and that the blockade could cost the country another $35 billion in oil revenue.

Hitting financial networks sustaining Iran's leadership

The current campaign differs from sanctions because Washington is concentrating on enforcement and the intermediaries sustaining Iran's economy rather than simply announcing additional restrictions, Bitsoff said.

She pointed to restrictions imposed by the United Arab Emirates, measures against Iranian airlines and Turkish action against banks connected to Iranian transactions.

Such measures could influence officials and business figures whose continued support for the Islamic Republic depends on financial privileges and access to international markets.

Earlier sanctions had often pushed legitimate commerce underground while allowing networks connected to the Revolutionary Guards to profit, Bitsoff said.

Machine-Chian described the emergence of wealthy intermediaries, sometimes called sanctions merchants, who benefited from moving Iranian oil and money through opaque arrangements.

Those networks subsequently became obstacles to negotiations and economic normalization because their commercial interests depended on maintaining the existing system, he said.

Machine-Chian distinguished between sanctions that impose prolonged hardship without producing results and measures designed to achieve specific objectives within a foreseeable period.

The loss of the UAE, Machine-Chian added, as a major commercial and financial intermediary has further complicated Iran's position.

Dubai previously provided an important channel for Iranian transactions, but restrictions have forced businesses to seek alternatives through Turkey, Pakistan and Afghanistan, Machine-Chian said.

Those routes, he said, have limited capacity and cannot quickly replace the financial infrastructure previously available through the Emirates.

China and regional allies face financial constraints

China remains Iran's principal oil customer, but its commercial relationship offers fewer advantages to the Islamic Republic than commonly assumed, Bitsoff said.

Independent Chinese refineries purchase Iranian crude at substantial discounts, while payments in yuan often remain in China and are largely available for purchasing Chinese goods.

Major Chinese banks generally avoid Iranian transactions, leaving smaller intermediaries to facilitate much of the remaining trade, she said.

The blockade also allows Washington to restrict Iranian oil exports without directly confronting major Chinese financial institutions, Clawson said.

Targeting those institutions could provoke Chinese retaliation affecting broader US economic interests.

The financial pressure is also affecting Iran's regional allies.

Hezbollah has struggled to maintain basic financial obligations and social support programs since the blockade began, Bitsoff said.

Machine-Chian argued that Iran's relationships with allied armed groups had become increasingly transactional, making continued financial assistance essential to sustaining their loyalty.

Political survival and prospects for negotiations

Despite the mounting pressure, the panelists differed over whether the Islamic Republic would ultimately accept Washington's demands.

Economic hardship alone was unlikely to persuade Iran's leadership to abandon its objectives, Bitsoff said.

Instead sustained pressure could influence members of the security apparatus whose loyalty depends on salaries, privileges and expectations of continued stability.

Clawson considered negotiated concessions possible, pointing to occasions when Iran reversed positions it had presented as nonnegotiable.

He suggested Iran could accept a three-year suspension of uranium enrichment, particularly because its facilities had been damaged and were not operational.

Machine-Chian was more skeptical, arguing that abandoning regional ambitions and nuclear objectives would challenge central elements of the Islamic Republic's political identity.

The blockade's sustainability also remains a concern because maintaining naval operations places substantial demands on American ships, crews and maintenance resources, Bitsoff said, although she expected the operation to continue.

The discussion highlighted a central uncertainty: whether sustained economic pressure will produce concessions, weaken the leadership's support structures or prolong Iran's economic difficulties without fundamentally changing its political direction.