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Global Fossil Fuel Emissions Projected to Fall Amid Iran War and Renewables Growth

Global Fossil Fuel Emissions Projected to Fall Amid Iran War and Renewables Growth

First seen 10 Nov 2026, 16:49 UTC • •
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ThreatCluster AI
ThreatCluster •November 10, 2026 at 16:50 UTC
  • •Fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall by 0.4% in 2026 due to renewable energy growth.
  • •Oil emissions are expected to decrease by 2% as a result of geopolitical disruptions.
  • •Total carbon emissions are still set to rise by 1% due to deforestation and land-use changes.

Global fossil fuel emissions are expected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026, primarily due to the rise of renewable energy sources like solar and wind, alongside disruptions caused by the Iran war. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has contributed to this decline in oil emissions, which are projected to drop by 2%. However, total carbon emissions are anticipated to rise by 1% this year, driven by increased emissions from deforestation and land-use changes. Experts warn that this reduction in fossil fuel emissions may be temporary and not indicative of a long-term trend. The Global Carbon Project and a study in Nature highlight that while renewable energy uptake is increasing, significant challenges remain, including geopolitical factors and ongoing energy demand. The world is projected to exhaust its remaining carbon budget in under four years if current trends continue.

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Timeline

2026-11-10
COP31 climate talks report released
A report presented at COP31 indicates a 0.4% decrease in fossil fuel emissions for 2026, driven by renewables and geopolitical factors.
Theguardian
2026-11-10
Global Carbon Project findings published
The Global Carbon Project reports a projected 1% rise in total carbon emissions due to deforestation, despite a decline in fossil fuel emissions.
Semafor

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Common questions

What is driving the decrease in fossil fuel emissions?
The decrease is driven by the rapid expansion of renewable energy sources and geopolitical disruptions from the Iran war.
Are total carbon emissions still rising?
Yes, total carbon emissions are projected to rise by 1% this year due to increased emissions from deforestation and land-use changes.
What are the implications of these findings?
The findings suggest that while there is a temporary decline in fossil fuel emissions, significant challenges remain for long-term climate goals.