Russia's Drone Strategy Could Force Lithuania to Capitulate in 90 Days

• •Russia could deploy 170,000 drones to target Lithuania's infrastructure within 90 days.
• •The scenario is based on geopolitical shifts, including reduced U.S. military presence in Europe.
• •Lithuania's constitutional framework lacks clear succession procedures for leadership during crises.

A study by the Baltic Defense Initiative outlines a scenario where Russia could pressure Lithuania into capitulation within 90 days through a large-scale drone campaign, deploying up to 170,000 drones over 60 days. The analysis predicts significant damage to critical infrastructure, including urban centers and essential services in Vilnius. This scenario is set against a backdrop of diminished U.S. military focus on Europe due to ongoing commitments elsewhere, particularly the Iran war. The report highlights vulnerabilities in Lithuania's governance, noting a lack of clear succession procedures if top leaders are incapacitated. The findings are intended to prompt discussions on enhancing defense measures across the Baltic region. While the study presents a planning scenario rather than a forecast, it raises alarms about the potential for Russian aggression in NATO territories. Regional observers are urged to consider the implications of such a campaign on collective defense mechanisms.