Are Ukraine's Strikes on a Moscow Refinery hitting more than Russia's economy?

“As Russians were preparing to cast their ballots on the final day of Kremlin-controlled elections on September 20, Ukraine launched what Moscow authorities describe as its largest combined attack on the Russian capital to date. Ukrainian drones and missiles broke through Russia’s air defense, striking the Kapotnya oil refinery - a leading supplier of fuel and petroleum products to Moscow and the surrounding regions, as well as fuel to Russian forces operating in Ukraine. The attack came despite the company’s attempts to shield the facility with anti-drone netting and other protective structures, spotlighting Moscow’s inability to protect its critical infrastructure.

“After previously striking the Kapotnya refinery in June 2026, which at the time caused only a temporary suspension of operations, the latest strike has reportedly inflicted damages that could force the refinery to remain offline for several months, potentially into 2027. If Ukraine’s sustained strikes simultaneously disrupt operations at multiple refineries, such as those in Yaroslavl and Moscow, they could significantly affect transportation and fuel-dependent activities in and around Moscow.

“According to ACLED data, Ukrainian forces have carried out, on average, three attacks a month against oil and fuel infrastructure in Moscow and the surrounding regions since May 2026. However, these strikes represent only a small of Ukraine’s broader campaign against Russia's energy sector. The pattern suggests that Moscow itself has not been the main target, with Ukrainian forces seemingly deploying more of their drone against refineries and other fuel infrastructure elsewhere in Russia, particularly in frontline and Black Sea regions, as well as Yaroslavl, Bashkortostan, Tatarstan and Leningrad regions. Russian warehouses and storage facilities were also targeted in the second half of the summer.

“The potential impact of these attacks could be significant, extending beyond reduced fuel supplies, high prices, and longer queues at gas stations. Disruption of the refinery work could also have a knock-on effect on Moscow's wider infrastructure. Gazprom Neft, which owns the refinery, has claimed that its bitumen is used to build or repair roughly half of Moscow’s roads.

“As explosions and fires become increasingly visible in Russia’s capital, the conflict is becoming harder for ordinary Russians to ignore, challenging the perception that Moscow could remain spared from the consequences of the war it started.

“Ukraine is likely to continue targeting Russian energy infrastructure and other strategic targets in Moscow and beyond unless Russia ceases its attacks on Ukraine.”

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