Craneware sinks 25% as Peel Hunt cuts forecasts after cyber warning

Ephrem began his journalistic journey at Proactive in June 2021. With a strong academic background in Information Technology, his expertise particularly lies in the field of Cyber Security, Management Information Systems and Computer Forensics. Before joining Proactive, Ephrem worked as a researcher and lecturer at a number of leading universities, including the University of Portsmouth's Institute of Criminal Justice Studies, the University of Winchester’s Institute of Policing, and Jain...

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Craneware PLC (AIM:CRW) shares plunged 25% to 1006p on Monday after the healthcare software group reset its near-term expectations, prompting Peel Hunt to slash profit forecasts and place its rating and target price under review.

The sell-off followed Craneware’s full-year results, in which it reset revenue expectations for the year to June 2027 to around US$185 million, broadly equivalent to its current annual recurring revenue.

The more cautious position follows July’s cyber security incident, whose direct and indirect financial impact has yet to be fully quantified.

Peel Hunt said it had moved its 2027 forecasts to what it described as Craneware’s “worst-case scenario”, cutting EBITDA estimates for 2027 and 2028 by 36% and 26%, respectively.

The broker said the new assumptions reflected revenue of around US$185 million and an exit-2027 EBITDA margin of 30%.

Despite the reductions, Peel Hunt said it believed Craneware’s structural growth opportunity remained intact, pointing to potential benefits from changes to the US 340B drug pricing programme.

Craneware itself expects 340B-related tailwinds to build during the second half of the current financial year, though these are not included in its present revenue expectations.

The group has also begun a cost review aimed at resizing the business to reflect the weaker near-term outlook.

Full-year 2026 revenue was broadly flat at US$206 million, while adjusted EBITDA increased 3% to US$67.1 million and statutory pre-tax profit rose 7% to US$25.8 million.

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