Denmark warns that Russia expected to escalate hybrid warfare against Nato allies in ...

The report says there could be ‘greater consequences for the targeted countries than in the past’

The Danish defence intelligence service has warned “escalating” threat from Russia, expecting hybrid attacks on Nato allies in the coming months seeking to disrupt everyday life through cyberattacks and sabotage acts with “high risk” of casualties.

The Danish defence intelligence service has warned “escalating” threat from Russia, expecting hybrid attacks on Nato allies in the coming months seeking to disrupt everyday life through cyberattacks and sabotage acts with “high risk” of casualties.

The report warned that Russia will seek to disrupt European support for Ukraine or prevent it from reaching Ukraine .

The report warned that Russia will seek to disrupt European support for Ukraine or prevent it from reaching Ukraine .

The service is expecting “more frequent attacks” with “greater consequences for the targeted countries,” including attempts to cripple critical infrastructure or sabotage attacks that “carry a high risk” of casualties.

The service is expecting “more frequent attacks” with “greater consequences for the targeted countries,” including attempts to cripple critical infrastructure or sabotage attacks that “carry a high risk” of casualties.

The assessment concluded there is “a low but growing” risk of a Russian “limited military attack” against a neighbouring country in a bid to “redirect European resources away from supporting Ukraine and to sow division within Nato.”

The assessment concluded there is “a low but growing” risk of a Russian “limited military attack” against a neighbouring country in a bid to “redirect European resources away from supporting Ukraine and to sow division within Nato.”

Any such attack could take form of an isolated strike with long-range weapon or a “false-flag” operation using Ukrainian drones.

Any such attack could take form of an isolated strike with long-range weapon or a “false-flag” operation using Ukrainian drones.

The service concluded it remained “highly unlikely” that Russia would launch an outright invasion of a Nato country, but it said it “cannot be ruled out.”

The service concluded it remained “highly unlikely” that Russia would launch an outright invasion of a Nato country, but it said it “cannot be ruled out.”

But Russia could see the few years as a “window of opportunity” to act against European Nato allies, particularly if it concluded the US response is not certain.

But Russia could see the few years as a “window of opportunity” to act against European Nato allies, particularly if it concluded the US response is not certain.

Full summary of the report is here ( 12:21 ).

Full summary of the report is here ( 12:21 ).

The report comes amid growing warnings from several European leaders, including Polish prime minister Donald Tusk , and other intelligence services across Europe.

The report comes amid growing warnings from several European leaders, including Polish prime minister Donald Tusk , and other intelligence services across Europe.

Separately, Spanish newspaper El Mundo claimed that the US has warned Spain, France and Italy against possible Russian drone attack from the Mediterranean sea in the year in a bid to disrupt their upcoming elections and discourage from supporting Ukraine .

The paper said the warning – which it claims was issued by the CIA, and relayed to Lithuania – focused on a jet-powered Russian drone Gerbera, which could cause disruption in the southern European Nato states.

The suggestion is the drones could be launched from Russian ships, hidden in shipping containers.

El Mundo suggested the attacks on the three southern countries could be timed to coincide with their upcoming elections in 2027, as Russia seeks to put pressure on European capitals to stop supporting Ukraine.

The paper noted that the timing of the warning coincided with the French president Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call an emergency meeting with all party leaders to the Russian threat.

The Guardian has not independently verified the claims made by El Mundo.

EU commission spokesperson Thomas Regnier confirmed the bloc “seen the reports” in the media, but said “there is no surprise from our side.”

“ We know that our airspace is being tested and has been violated several times,” he added, saying that “there are several hybrid attacks going on, targeting many of our member states. “This is precisely why we have also proposed … the drone defence initiative, the air shield, the space shield – … to increase the resilience of our member states.”

“ We know that our airspace is being tested and has been violated several times,” he added, saying that “there are several hybrid attacks going on, targeting many of our member states.

“This is precisely why we have also proposed … the drone defence initiative, the air shield, the space shield – … to increase the resilience of our member states.”

Italian defence minister Guido Crosetto pushed back against the claims made by El Mundo, saying that “we already live in difficult and nervous times and there is no need to addd fuel to the fire.”

Italian deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini called the report “irresponsible” and calls for “calm, composure” and “not alarmism that fuels tensions.”

Meanwhile, Poland’s prime minister Donald Tusk said two Polish border crossings with Ukraine had to be briefly evacuated this morning amid Russian attacks on western Ukraine.

Speaking at a press conference alongside Bulgarian prime minister Rumen Radev , Tusk said:

“It’s a real tragedy of our times, because it’s not the first time this has happened: whenever I speak to one of our partners here in Warsaw and mention just how aggressive Russia’s behaviour is and what a problem this poses for Poland too, it is precisely at that very moment that the Russians decide to prove it. Just as we were speaking a moment ago, Ukraine was attacked again near the border with Poland, and once more we had to evacuate the border crossings at Hrubieszów and Dorohusk. This situation requires us to act very decisively here in Poland, to cooperate with Ukraine, but also to warn Europe and our European partners that these are truly difficult times and that we must prepare thoroughly for the coming weeks and months. Autumn and winter could indeed prove critical.”

“It’s a real tragedy of our times, because it’s not the first time this has happened: whenever I speak to one of our partners here in Warsaw and mention just how aggressive Russia’s behaviour is and what a problem this poses for Poland too, it is precisely at that very moment that the Russians decide to prove it.

Just as we were speaking a moment ago, Ukraine was attacked again near the border with Poland, and once more we had to evacuate the border crossings at Hrubieszów and Dorohusk.

This situation requires us to act very decisively here in Poland, to cooperate with Ukraine, but also to warn Europe and our European partners that these are truly difficult times and that we must prepare thoroughly for the coming weeks and months. Autumn and winter could indeed prove critical.”

Tusk also responded to this morning’s suspected sabotage attack on a Starlink installation in central Poland ( 10:12 ).

“As you know, Poland is trying to help Ukraine in collaboration with SpaceX, so that communications are guaranteed – and we’ve had, well, a strange incident involving the arson attack on this infrastructure. It’s too early to say and I don’t like to jump to conclusions without being 100% certain what constitutes sabotage and what is an accident, but it looks bad – and I’d like you to know the conditions under which we have to work.”

“As you know, Poland is trying to help Ukraine in collaboration with SpaceX, so that communications are guaranteed – and we’ve had, well, a strange incident involving the arson attack on this infrastructure.

It’s too early to say and I don’t like to jump to conclusions without being 100% certain what constitutes sabotage and what is an accident, but it looks bad – and I’d like you to know the conditions under which we have to work.”

The Danish defence intelligence service has warned “escalating” threat from Russia, expecting hybrid attacks on Nato allies in the coming months seeking to disrupt everyday life through cyberattacks and sabotage acts with “high risk” of casualties.

The Danish defence intelligence service has warned “escalating” threat from Russia, expecting hybrid attacks on Nato allies in the coming months seeking to disrupt everyday life through cyberattacks and sabotage acts with “high risk” of casualties.

The report warned that Russia will seek to disrupt European support for Ukraine or prevent it from reaching Ukraine .

The report warned that Russia will seek to disrupt European support for Ukraine or prevent it from reaching Ukraine .

The service is expecting “more frequent attacks” with “greater consequences for the targeted countries,” including attempts to cripple critical infrastructure or sabotage attacks that “carry a high risk” of casualties.

The service is expecting “more frequent attacks” with “greater consequences for the targeted countries,” including attempts to cripple critical infrastructure or sabotage attacks that “carry a high risk” of casualties.

The assessment concluded there is “a low but growing” risk of a Russian “limited military attack” against a neighbouring country in a bid to “redirect European resources away from supporting Ukraine and to sow division within Nato.”

The assessment concluded there is “a low but growing” risk of a Russian “limited military attack” against a neighbouring country in a bid to “redirect European resources away from supporting Ukraine and to sow division within Nato.”

Any such attack could take form of an isolated strike with long-range weapon or a “false-flag” operation using Ukrainian drones.

Any such attack could take form of an isolated strike with long-range weapon or a “false-flag” operation using Ukrainian drones.

The service concluded it remained “highly unlikely” that Russia would launch an outright invasion of a Nato country, but it said it “cannot be ruled out.”

The service concluded it remained “highly unlikely” that Russia would launch an outright invasion of a Nato country, but it said it “cannot be ruled out.”

But Russia could see the few years as a “window of opportunity” to act against European Nato allies, particularly if it concluded the US response is not certain.

But Russia could see the few years as a “window of opportunity” to act against European Nato allies, particularly if it concluded the US response is not certain.

Full summary of the report is here ( 12:21 ).

Full summary of the report is here ( 12:21 ).

The report comes amid growing warnings from several European leaders, including Polish prime minister Donald Tusk , and other intelligence services across Europe.

The report comes amid growing warnings from several European leaders, including Polish prime minister Donald Tusk , and other intelligence services across Europe.

The full Danish defence intelligence service report is now out.

The assessment includes a series of highly alarming warnings Russia “escalating” hybrid war against Nato allies with “greater consequences for the targeted countries than in the past,” including a risk of casualties.

“Russia has intensified its use of sabotage, destructive cyber attacks and is attacking targets in Europe with drones.”

“Russia has intensified its use of sabotage, destructive cyber attacks and is attacking targets in Europe with drones.”

“The hybrid war is escalating,” it said.

“ Russia is under more pressure than it has been at any other point during the war against Ukraine. Ukraine’s sustained long‑range attacks are causing still more extensive damage deep inside Russia. Russia is suffering heavy losses for marginal territorial gains in Ukraine. At the same time, the Russian economy is on the brink of a major crisis, driven by military expenditures, international sanctions and Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.”

“ Russia is under more pressure than it has been at any other point during the war against Ukraine. Ukraine’s sustained long‑range attacks are causing still more extensive damage deep inside Russia. Russia is suffering heavy losses for marginal territorial gains in Ukraine. At the same time, the Russian economy is on the brink of a major crisis, driven by military expenditures, international sanctions and Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.”

The assessment said there was “no prospect of Russia achieving any major breakthrough in the war against Ukraine over the six months,” but president Vladimir Putin is “highly unlikely” to “compromise on his fundamental objectives for the war.”

“Russia believes that Europe will gradually develop an autonomous military capability which, by 2030, will pose an increasing threat to Russia. For Russia, the coming years therefore present a window of opportunity, during which President Putin could conclude that it is worth the risk attempting to drastically change the security order in Europe.”

“Russia believes that Europe will gradually develop an autonomous military capability which, by 2030, will pose an increasing threat to Russia. For Russia, the coming years therefore present a window of opportunity, during which President Putin could conclude that it is worth the risk attempting to drastically change the security order in Europe.”

The warning says that Russia “will intensify its hybrid war by carrying out more frequent attacks against the West and Nato, with greater consequences for the targeted countries than in the past.”

“This could include destructive cyber-attacks that cripple critical societal functions as well as sabotage attacks that carry a high risk of casualties. ”

“This could include destructive cyber-attacks that cripple critical societal functions as well as sabotage attacks that carry a high risk of casualties. ”

The report also said there was “a low but growing risk” that Russia could “launch a limited military attack against one or several Nato countries bordering Russia.”

“A limited military attack w ould be a desperate move on Russia’s part and, like the intensified hybrid attacks, could potentially take place in the coming months. The purpose would be to redirect European resources away from supporting Ukraine and to sow division within Nato, should the alliance fail to agree on a collective response.”

“A limited military attack w ould be a desperate move on Russia’s part and, like the intensified hybrid attacks, could potentially take place in the coming months. The purpose would be to redirect European resources away from supporting Ukraine and to sow division within Nato, should the alliance fail to agree on a collective response.”

It said such an attack “ could take the form of isolated strikes with long-range weapons on infrastructure that is vital to the support of Ukraine .”

“Russia might then claim that the weapons only struck Nato territory because they were jammed by Ukraine. It could also be a so-called false-flag operation, where Russia uses Ukrainian‑made drones to attack a Nato country.”

Alternatively, Russia “could also deploy a limited number of military forces, possibly without national insignia, into NATO countries bordering Russia.”

The report concluded it remained “highly unlikely” that Russia will launch “an outright ionvasion” of a Nato country. But, it added, “it cannot be ruled out.”

The report warns “there is a risk that Russia assesses that the Nato countries will not respond collectively,” especially if it thinks the US “cannot or will not” support European allies.

The intelligence service confirmed its assessment that Russia could wage a local war with a country bordering Russia within six months, and could pose a “credible threat” and fight a war with “several countries in the Baltic region” in the two years.

“Within approximately five years, Russia will be ready for a large-scale war on the European continent,” it said.

The full report is here.

Danish foreign minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, fresh back from the UN, also spoke to DR the latest assessment of the Russian threat.

He said it was a “serious” warning, which fits what we have seen in the last few months, including the attempted drone attack in Leipzig.

“When I speak to colleagues, there are both known and as yet unattributed incidents, all of which paint a picture of Russia escalating its actions,” he said.

He warned that Russia could see the few years as a “window of opportunity,” as Europe is in early stages of rearming and there are some doubts the US commitment to Nato - although, ever a diplomat, he says that doubts “is beginning to fade again now.”

He says Russia hopes to “sow discord” among European countries and Europe’s relations with the US.

“We must stand firm against what the Russians are playing at,” he stressed.

Following the warnings today, the Danish agency for civil security raised its threat level for “destructive cyber-attacks” from medium to high.

The agency “now assesses that it is likely that Russia will attempt to carry out destructive cyber-attacks against Denmark ,” it said .

In its full notice , it said the decision was taken given “Russia’s increased risk appetite for carrying out hybrid attacks against European Nato countries, including destructive cyber-attacks.”

The risk was assessed to be particularly high for malware attacks seeking to wipe data out or disrupt “operational technology.”

The note also mentioned the agency has “knowledge of specific planning of sabotage actions against Denmark.”

The current Danish defence minister, Jeppe Bruus, got pressed a bit more on his words the potential use of Article 4 and 5 of Nato treaty.

In an interview with DR, he said it was important to “take the situation very seriously,” which is why he called the press conferences, but “people should also feel reassured that we have authorities and a defence force prepared for the situation we are in.”

He also played down any talk on the use of Article 4 or 5.

But he repeated his stark warnings a growing risk from Russia, with attempts to “deliberately … prevent us from supporting Ukraine” with a risk of “some sort of provocation to test Nato’s unity.”

In a separate interview with DR, intelligence chief Thomas Ahrenkiel repeated his top line that “Russia is stepping up its hybrid attacks” across Europe, and Denmark should be on high alert for similar incidents there.

He warned that “Russia is focusing its attention in particular on the defence industry and the part of the industry that supports Ukraine ,” but also more broadly on stopping any aid from reaching Ukraine.

He drew particular attention to the failed drone attempt at the Leipzig airport in Germany, saying it was something that “had been planned and attempted locally,” not a large-scale attack.

He warned that any attacks or acts of sabotage could also target transports to and from Ukraine.

Denmark’s Bruus also makes it very clear that whatever Russian intention, Europe has no plans to stop supporting Ukraine .

He says Russia’s willigness to escalate shows its growing desperation as it feels “under pressure” while failng to make progress on the battleground.

And that concludes the Q&A.

Denmark’s defence minister Jeppe Bruus repeatedly gets asked on whether Denmark would be prepared to work within the framework of the Article 4 or 5 of the Nato treaty when faced with a Russian aggression (however limited).

He says Denmark works closely with its allies, and all decisions on Article 4 and 5 are always ultimately political, but makes it clear that Denmark is committed to Nato.

Responding to questions from journalists, intelligence chief Thomas Ahrenkiel agrees that Russia appears to be targeting Ukraine’s closest allies in particular, in a bid to discourage them from further support for Kyiv.

He says the service is aware of some planning going on from Russia .

But, he says, this is not entirely new.

Ahrenkiel also said that as Russia feels more pressure in Ukraine and spirals in its conspiracy theories falsely alleging that Nato would want to attack it in the future, it “increases” the risk of escalation.

He also warned that Russia would seek to undermine western support for Ukraine and divide Nato, and potentially target key defence companies supporting Ukraine.

“We assess that Russia will further escalate its hybrid war against us in the coming months with an increasing number of attempted attacks aimed at causing greater damage than before,” he said.

He says there is no direct threat to Denmark, but the country could become involved if Russia attempts a limited incursion into Nato territory, given Russia’s “increased willingness to take risks.”

Remember: Denmark has its soldiers in Latvia, among others.

Denmark has warned that Russia is expected to escalate hybrid warfare in the coming months, according to new assessments by its defence intelligence service.

At a joint press conference (still ongoing), Danish defence minister Jeppe Bruus , intelligence service chief Thomas Ahrenkiel and defence chief Michael Hyldgaard warned that “the situation is more serious now that at any time since the end of the cold war.”

Ahrenkiel warned that “in recent months, Russia has intensified its hybrid attacks,” referencing, among others, the failed drone attack in Leipzig, a stray missile in Poland, and drones violating borders of Nato member states.

“ Russia is acting more and more aggressively and carrying out more and more dangerous hybrid and other attacks against targets in Europe,” he said.

The intelligence service will publish a new assessment of threat today, warning that “ Russia will further escalate its hybrid war against us in the coming months.”

Ahrenkiel added there’s “a small but increasing” risk of “limited military attacks” against a Nato country on the eastern flank that neighbours Russia, through a “false-flag” operation.

“We cannot rule it out,” he said, without specifying the country, but stressing that it’s not Denmark.

He added that “Russia’s increasing willingness to take risks has an impact on the security situation in Denmark.”

Another of Ukraine’s neighbours, Romania, reported a drone breaching its airspace and crashing near the village of Suceava.

Two Romanian F-16 fighter jets were scrambled to monitor the incident, but the drone crashed four minutes into its flight within Romanian air space and before they could engage, Romanian media reported.

No damage was reported.

Czech Gripen fighter jets were scrambled last night to conduct combat air patrols over Poland, helping to “guard the skies over Poland, ready to respond to any potential threat to the airspace of our ally,” the Czech army confirmed .

“ It was not necessary to resort to the use of force. After completing the mission, our Gripens safely returned to the airport in Pardubice,” it added in a statement.

The operation coincided with preventive measures taken by the Polish air force overnight in reaction to large-scale Russian strikes across the border in Ukraine .

Meanwhile, neighbouring Poland is investigating a suspected sabotage after a fire broke out at a Starlink satellite communications station in central Poland.

“This act of sabotage was deliberately designed to disable the station … disrupting internet access for various institutions, including the Ukrainian army,” Krzysztof Gawkowski told Polish public broadcaster TVP Info.

“There is much to suggest that we are witnessing an element of the phase of hybrid warfare; that we are dealing with a deliberate attempt to disrupt the operations of an important station,” he said.

At least seven people were killed in a Russian strike on a farm in Kharkiv region, with a further 12 people injured.

Two more people were killed in Kyiv, including one in the parking lot of a maternity hospital that was damaged. Eight people were injured.

The attack came just hours after Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged international leaders to keep choking Russia’s revenues and impede its war efforts, telling the UN general assembly that “Russia’s revenues must remain a target.”

I will bring you all the latest on Ukraine here.

Separately, the EU’s António Costa is set to address the UN general assembly later today , on a day which will focus on the Middle East, with Palestinian and Israeli leaders set to deliver their speeches.

And, as always, I will let you know anything else happening across Europe.

It’s Thursday, 24 September 2026 , it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live .

Europe live with Jakub Krupa