Protests in France put Macron's centrist successors under pressure | Межа

Polls taken after violent demonstrations on Oct. 17 put candidates from Emmanuel Macron’s political camp at risk of elimination in the first round of the presidential election. Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon appear to be benefiting from the unrest, while centrists and conservatives remain divided over a common candidate.

France’s center-right presidential hopefuls are heading into another tense Saturday of protests amid concern that demonstrations and violence are strengthening rivals on both the far right and far left.

This is reported by Politico .

Five polls conducted after the Oct. 17 unrest, including one commissioned by POLITICO, found that potential successors from Macron’s coalition would be knocked out in the first round. Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets that day, while violence and looting were reported across the country.

Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon have both gained from the protest movement, according to Gaël Sliman, head of the polling firm Odoxa. Le Pen has presented herself as a candidate who guarantees law and order, Sliman said, while Mélenchon has acted as a “hero and herald of protest.”

They are competing against a divided group of centrist and center-right candidates, including former Macron prime ministers Gabriel Attal and Edouard Philippe, and former interior minister Bruno Retailleau. The candidates have yet to agree on a shared response to the crisis or on who would be best placed to prevent a runoff between Le Pen and Mélenchon.

Three officials supporting centrist and conservative candidates told POLITICO they feared the recent events would cause lasting damage to their campaigns. One campaign official, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said:

“It’s definitely going to kill us,” – An anonymous campaign official

“It’s definitely going to kill us,”

– An anonymous campaign official

“We cannot be the solution anymore, only the problem.” – An anonymous campaign official

“We cannot be the solution anymore, only the problem.”

– An anonymous campaign official

A supporter of Philippe said the protests were particularly ill-timed for his candidate, drawing a comparison with the 2018 – 2019 Yellow Vest movement, which took place while Philippe was prime minister.

“It’s exactly what he doesn’t need,” – A Philippe supporter

“It’s exactly what he doesn’t need,”

– A Philippe supporter

The supporter continued:

“He doesn’t know how to do this. He’s not empathetic, and he’s not pretending to be.” – A Philippe supporter

“He doesn’t know how to do this. He’s not empathetic, and he’s not pretending to be.”

– A Philippe supporter

“Honestly, I don’t know how we’re going to get through this. Things are tough, and we’re out of ideas,” – A centrist MP

“Honestly, I don’t know how we’re going to get through this. Things are tough, and we’re out of ideas,”

The protests have taken place on two consecutive Saturdays and are expected to continue in the coming weeks. High school students are calling for better learning conditions, while broader demonstrations have focused on the cost-of-living crisis. The unrest has included vandalism and looting, especially on Oct. 17, when Macron’s government appeared to underestimate both the scale of the protests and the risk of violence.

In the days that followed, the government and center-right candidates blamed Mélenchon and his France Unbowed party for inflaming tensions. Polls suggest the strategy may have further damaged Mélenchon’s standing among voters already opposed to him, but did little to weaken his particularly young support base. A France Unbowed strategist described the relationship between the party and the protests as mutually reinforcing:

“There is a kind of synergy between the social movement and France Unbowed,” – A France Unbowed strategist

“There is a kind of synergy between the social movement and France Unbowed,”

– A France Unbowed strategist

The strategist added:

“This leads participants to see Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s impending victory as a logical conclusion.” – A France Unbowed strategist

“This leads participants to see Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s impending victory as a logical conclusion.”

– A France Unbowed strategist

Le Pen has what she calls her “protective vision.” Her deputy, Jordan Bardella, said a far-right victory was “the only solution to allow the return of order and return of authority.” Le Pen is currently ahead by a double-digit margin, while Mélenchon appears best placed to finish second and qualify for a runoff.

Centrists and conservatives have struggled to settle on a single candidate to succeed Macron. On Wednesday, Attal, the candidate for Macron’s Renaissance party, unexpectedly proposed a “large primary of democrats” to narrow the field against the far left and far right. Potential participants could include Philippe, Retailleau and David Lisnard, the mayor of Cannes, who is running as an outsider on a conservative, small-state platform.

Rival campaigns quickly rejected Attal’s proposal. Laurent Marcangeli, who leads Philippe’s Horizons party in the National Assembly, called it “muddled and hazardous” on Wednesday evening. A Retailleau supporter said:

“Without Philippe, there’s no primary,” – A Retailleau supporter

“Without Philippe, there’s no primary,”

– A Retailleau supporter

Attal continued to press for a contest on Thursday, warning of the “cataclysm” of a Le Pen-Mélenchon runoff. He told public broadcaster France 5:

“Our country wouldn’t recover from this,” – Gabriel Attal

“Our country wouldn’t recover from this,”

You might be interested in:

Massive protests erupted across France with road blockades and clashes with police amid political unrest and the appointment of new Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu.

Marine Le Pen says Ukraine’s possible EU accession could intensify competition for French farmers and reduce France’s of the Common Agricultural Policy budget.

A new Harris-Interactive-Toluna poll suggests Jean-Luc Mélenchon is gaining on Édouard Philippe ahead of France’s 2027 presidential election, while Marine Le Pen leads.