Quantum Debt Is Growing—And Most Companies Are Not Prepared

Anri Amir, Founder/CEO Black Wall Global , (form.) General Secretariat & SEA to President Intn.Bureau of Criminal Investigation CYBERPOL​.

The biggest business risk around quantum computing might very well be that companies wait until it arrives before preparing for it.

Firms are already piling up what I like to call “quantum debt,” which is the difference between the possible impact of quantum technology and an organization’s preparedness for that impact. This debt may take the form of insecure cryptography, data leakage risks, lack of skills, vendor hype and technology strategies that assume quantum computing remains a problem for the far-off future.

As with technical debt, quantum debt accumulates gradually without raising many alarms initially. But those business leaders who tackle such differences early on will find the cost, the complexity and the disruption of future transition minimized. The point is to make sure that uncertainty does not provide a reason for inaction once quantum computing becomes commercially viable.

Start With Visibility And Ownership

To begin, you need an understanding of where quantum debt already exists inside the organization. Leaders should identify where vulnerable cryptography is used, which sensitive data requires long-term protection and who owns the organization’s post-quantum migration. They should also assess whether internal teams have enough expertise to evaluate quantum risks and opportunities without relying entirely on vendors.

Warning signs include incomplete cryptographic inventories, no migration plan, unclear accountability and limited internal knowledge. Relying on vendors to define both the opportunities and the risks is also of concern.

Ultimately, the starting point is visibility, ownership and a clear assessment of current exposure.

Quantum Security Cannot Wait

The most immediate quantum challenge is cryptographic. A sufficiently capable quantum computer could eventually compromise widely used public-key encryption systems. While such a machine doesn’t exist today, security transitions take years while sensitive information may remain valuable for decades.

That creates what is often called a “harvest now, decrypt later” risk. Adversaries are capable of collecting encrypted data today and potentially decrypting it in the future when they have access to more advanced quantum computers. Hence, organizational leaders should be able to determine what data needs to be kept confidential for a longer period of time and should be able to determine where cryptography is being applied.​

It’s important to note that replacing cryptography isn’t accomplished by just applying one software update. Replacing cryptography involves preparation, testing, coordination with suppliers and staged deployment.

NIST finalized its first three post-quantum cryptography standards in 2024 and now encourages organizations to begin transitioning to them immediately. Its migration guidance also identifies cryptographic asset discovery and inventory as an important starting point, as organizations cannot effectively prioritize or migrate cryptography they have not identified.

As leaders, you don’t need to predict exactly when the threat will arrive to begin a structured, risk-based migration before the emerging technology creates an emergency.

Look Beyond The Quantum Headlines

Preparing for quantum also means developing the ability to distinguish meaningful progress from impressive-sounding metrics. The quantum industry often describes progress in terms of the number of physical qubits in a machine. However, the number of physical qubits doesn’t tell leaders whether a system can reliably perform useful work.

Leaders should establish clear evaluation criteria—including assessing logical qubits, error rates, operating time, reproducibility and the number of reliable operations—before accepting a vendor’s claims. Additionally, they should ask whether independent experts have verified the results, if the system performs consistently and if it outperforms the best available classical methods on a relevant task.

While a more impressive laboratory announcement is great, meaningful progress means becoming more reliable, scalable and economically useful.

Quantum Advantage Is Not Business Advantage

Quantum advantage generally means that a quantum computer has outperformed a classical system on a given task. Business value, however, requires more. The task must solve a genuine problem, and the ROI must exceed the total cost and complexity of producing the result.

DARPA is applying a similar standard through its Quantum Benchmarking Initiative . The program defines “utility-scale” quantum computing as a system whose “computational value exceeds its cost” and is evaluating whether any approach can meet that threshold by 2033. A technically impressive result isn’t enough if the complete process is more expensive, less reliable or less useful than the strongest available classical method.

Companies can begin with focused experiments in areas where quantum computing has a plausible advantage, such as chemistry, materials research and complex scientific simulation. Selected optimization and financial applications may also be worth exploring but should be carefully compared with strong classical methods.

Every pilot should begin with a clear business question, a classical baseline, measurable outcomes and clear stopping conditions. Using a quantum computer is not, by itself, evidence of business value.

Build Readiness Around Security, Knowledge And Governance

A practical quantum-readiness strategy focuses on three priorities: security, knowledge and governance.

To begin, organizations should inventory their cryptography, identify information requiring long-term protection and create a phased post-quantum migration plan.

, they should develop internal quantum literacy. You don’t need large teams of quantum physicists. Instead, your executives, security specialists, technology teams and procurement leaders need enough knowledge to evaluate risks, potential use cases and vendor claims themselves.

Currently, that capability remains limited. IBM’s 2025 Quantum Readiness Index , based on “C-suite executives representing 750 organizations across 28 countries and 14 industries,” found an average global readiness score of just 28 out of 100. Additionally, 61% of organizations cited inadequate quantum skills as a challenge.

Lastly, accountability must be clear, with one executive or governance group coordinating security, experimentation, investment and supplier oversight.

Quantum readiness needs to be embedded into enterprise risk management and long-term technology planning rather than treated as an isolated research initiative without executive ownership. You want to ensure that the organization can make informed decisions without being forced into rushed action later.

Quantum computing may either advance more slowly than its strongest advocates predict or faster than cautious organizations expect. We must prepare for both possibilities.

Even though the quantum future remains uncertain, modernizing cryptography gradually, developing internal knowledge and testing credible applications can be done now as competing technologies evolve. Those who wait may eventually be forced to make expensive decisions under pressure.​

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