The proof that Putin exploited Ukraine's Starlink blackout

Vladimir Putin exploited a lapse in US support for Ukraine with an onslaught of missile and drone strikes, Telegraph analysis has found.

The number of Russian strikes targeting the country surged by 58 per cent during a pause in US intelligence sharing, and restrictions imposed on Kyiv’s Starlink satellite access .

Ukraine relies heavily on US intelligence for early warning of Russian ballistic missiles, and on Starlink to intercept incoming Russian drones.

Between Oct 12 and 24, Russia launched some 4,003 strikes, compared with 2,527 in the preceding 12 days, according to data from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) analysed by the Telegraph.

On Oct 13, Volodymyr Zelensky , the Ukrainian president, revealed that his country had come under missile attack the day without the usual advance warning from its allies.

A day later, on Oct 14, Ukraine confirmed its access to Starshield , SpaceX’s military version of its Starlink commercial satellite system, was being restricted.

Experts said Moscow took advantage of the temporary blackout to ramp up its attacks.

“Ukraine relies on US-provided intelligence to receive alerts Russian incoming missile strikes,” Kateryna Shymkiv, a Russia researcher at the Institute for the Study of War, told The Telegraph.

“And Russia likely sought to leverage reported disruptions in intelligence-sharing to facilitate its winter strike campaign, and inflict greater casualties and damage.”

The temporary lapse in intelligence and high-speed satellite internet left Ukraine struggling to intercept faster incoming drones and missiles.

Between Sept 30 and Oct 11, Ukraine intercepted an average of 87 per cent of incoming drones and missiles. Between Oct 12 and 23, that fell to 84.9 per cent.

The interception rate was particularly low in the days immediately after Mr Zelensky reported the loss of US intelligence sharing.

On Oct 12, 150 of the 184 reported drones and missiles were intercepted, an interception rate of 81.5 per cent. The day, Ukraine intercepted 168 of the 216 launched, bringing the rate down to 77.8 per cent.

The full effects of the Starlink cut-off and the lapses in early warning for ballistic missiles are not known. However, Mr Zelensky said “people will die” because of the restrictions on Starlink satellite communications.

Ground-based air defence radars and drone interceptors were inhibited by the throttled Starlink system, according to reports, with a Russian drone attack on a park in Kharkiv killing at least six people, including a one-year-old girl and siblings aged eight and 12.

Ground-based air defence radars’ connectivity dropped to 0.1 megabytes per second on the day of the attack, not even enough to load a webpage, CBS News reported, citing Ukrainian officials and other well-placed sources.

Heightened tensions between Ukraine and the US came after Donald Trump agreed a deal to buy 300,000 tons of Russian diesel, despite sanctions he signed into law on countries buying fuel from the region.

The US president also blamed Ukraine’s strikes on Russian energy facilities for high global fuel prices, which experts say are caused by his war on Iran .

In addition to halting intelligence-sharing, the US also imposed restrictions on Starshield, which is developed by SpaceX but owned and operated by the Pentagon.

On Oct 14, Mr Zelensky said that Ukraine was facing severe restrictions and disruptions in accessing Starlink. The disruptions lasted until Oct 24.

The admission came after The Telegraph reported that the SpaceX chief executive had approached Mr Trump with the idea.

The slowdown limited Ukraine’s offensive capabilities, including its ability to launch mid-range drone strikes on Russian battlefield positions.

But it also undermined Ukraine’s ability to intercept drones, at a time when Russian attacks were intensifying.

Russia increased its use of faster drones, knowing it could outpace Ukraine’s restricted interceptors.

During the 12 days before Oct 12, Russia launched around 1,939 Shahed-136 drones.

In the 12 days following the disruption to US intelligence-sharing and Starlink and Starshield services, this rose to 3,219, a 66 per cent increase.

Russia also, notably, increased its usage of Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones. The Shahed-136 flies at 115mph.

The jet engine of the Geran-4 and 5 allows them to fly at 186-249mph, with some even reaching speeds of 311mph, according to Ukrainian military intelligence.

According to data analysed by the Telegraph, in the 12 days before Oct 13, Russia had launched 103 Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones at Ukraine. In the same period after Oct 13, it launched 382.

The drones easily outpace the 100mph speed limit that Starshield is said to have imposed on Ukraine’s drones.

“Russian Geran 4 and 5 jet-powered drones typically fly at cruise speeds of over 300 and 450kph [186mph-280mph] respectively,” Ms Shymkiv explained.

This makes “them much harder for Ukrainian interceptor drones to chase and intercept, especially when Ukrainian forces reported losing the connection with the drones at speeds exceeding 161kph [ 100mph]”.

This simultaneous loss of intelligence-sharing and satellite connectivity threatened to leave Kyiv weak at the negotiating table.

“Select Kremlin voices attempted to portray Ukraine’s negotiating position as weak amidst reports of Starshield speed restrictions and intelligence-sharing disruptions,” Ms Shymkiv said.

“The Kremlin, however, is likely trying to distract from Russia’s failure to achieve its goal of seizing Donetsk Oblast during the summer 2026 offensive, and is intensifying its long-range strikes campaign to break Ukrainian resilience.”

Strikes on Kyiv and other cities far from the front line using jet-powered drones and missiles have wreaked havoc in recent months, sending the capital’s commercial supply chains, transport links, power supply and schools and universities into disarray.

“Attacks on the bridges in Kyiv have made it almost impossible to do my work, because everything is constantly disrupted,” Maksym K, a lifelong Kyiv resident who works as a taxi driver, told The Telegraph.

“I have started to feel it is impossible to live here.”

That US support was retracted at a time when attacks on civilian infrastructure were skyrocketing has left Ukrainians bitterly angry with Washington, once regarded as a crucial ally.

“Maybe it sounds paranoid to say, but it feels like [Donald] Trump colluded with [Vladimir] Putin,” said Kateryna, a primary school teacher who asked to be referred to only by her first name. “I think that he also wants to put pressure on us, so that we have to accept giving up our land.”

The episode may force Ukraine to accelerate efforts to extract itself from dependence on US technology , said Erik Tiersten-Nyman, a research associate in the defence and security department at the CSIS.

“Ukraine has reduced its dependence in many areas, especially drone production, but some US contributions remain very hard to replace quickly, particularly space-based missile launch detection and Patriot interceptors,” he told The Telegraph.

“European allies can expand funding and some capabilities, but their ability to substitute for US early-warning intelligence remains limited.

“I’d expect October to accelerate efforts already under way to diversify satellite communications and early-warning arrangements, as well as potentially reduce dependence on individual suppliers of interceptors.

“Some of these measures can be taken relatively quickly, but developing independent early-warning capabilities or substantially expanding interceptor production will take much longer.”

On Oct 20, it was reported that the US had resumed sharing intelligence with Kyiv Russian strikes.

The Ukrainian president said: “It’s very important for our people, for children, adults, civilians, because we can hear when ballistic [missiles] is coming. So we are thankful to the American side.”

A few days later, on Oct 24, SpaceX’s Starlink and Starshield satellite communications services were restored in Ukraine, allowing the country’s forces to operate drones at high speed, Yevhenii Khmara, the defence minister, said.

“Using Starlink, a civilian commercial service, for offensive drone strikes to kill people has never been allowed, nor should it be,” Mr Musk wrote on X.

On Monday, Putin described Mr Musk as a “ real genius ”.