Escalating Russian Shadow Warfare Threatens European Security

Russian-linked actors have intensified their shadow warfare across Europe, targeting critical infrastructure and military facilities. This campaign includes cyber intrusions, sabotage of energy systems, and surveillance of defense officials, with Ukraine being the most visible front. The attacks are often unclaimed and attributed ambiguously, complicating Western responses. CEPA's research indicates that these actions are synchronized with Russia's broader war aims in Ukraine, posing a long-term threat to European security. The mismatch between Russia's rapid, deniable tactics and the West's slow, consensus-driven responses hinders effective deterrence. Recommendations include normalizing collective consultations among European allies and treating hybrid threats as a unified strategy. The current status shows a pressing need for structural changes in how Europe responds to these threats.

Key Points: • Russian shadow warfare targets critical European infrastructure and military facilities. • Western responses are slow and fragmented, failing to match the tempo of Russian attacks. • Deterrence must evolve to include collective assessments and a unified response framework.